More than a week after the elections in Venezuela, the political maze seems more entrenched than ever. After the failure to approve the publication of the minutes of the meeting of the National Electoral Council declaring Nicolás Maduro the winner, the Venezuelan government has chosen the strategy of attack as the best defense, and has implemented a brutal repression.
Meanwhile, the opposition, led by the duo of Maria Corina Machado and Edmundo González Urrutia, is responding to the discontent and disappointment of millions of voters who supported them with firmness and caution, despite their appeal to the military force to take action “on behalf of the people.”
Was this request a wise gesture? “Trying to negotiate publicly with the armed forces is delicate, because the military leadership has publicly demonstrated, at this moment, its unwavering support for Maduro’s presidency,” said Carolina Jimenez Sandoval, director of the Washington Office on Latin America and an expert on Venezuela.
Armed Forces: Repression and Popular Support for Maduro
However, Jiménez believes that the call to end the repression, currently carried out by the armed forces, the police and the “colectivos” (quasi-police groups operating with state approval), is important. For President Maduro, the support of the armed forces is absolutely essential to his ability to remain in power, given the massive popular rejection that his presidency generates.”
On the other hand, “the degree of cohesion of the armed forces around the strategy of consolidating Maduro is important,” says Miguel Angel Martínez Meucci, a doctor of political conflicts and pacification processes, noting that there are indications that it may be just a facade for the public image of cohesion that the military apparatus has presented so far. For the Venezuela expert, Maduro’s repression and his statements against WhatsApp are aimed at preventing citizens from demonstrating publicly and scaring people, even from using their own phones.
Proposal for new elections
Faced with this complex landscape, there are proposals for solutions, such as the one advocated, among others, by Victor Álvarez, former Minister of Economy under Hugo Chávez, who ended up quickly distancing himself: “Insisting on publishing the minutes of the meeting.” “The delay of the National Electoral Commission raises suspicions that it has been altered,” Álvarez tells DW. The Economist calls for a manual recount of the votes, with national witnesses and international observation at each ballot box. This was not the case either, and the last option to dispel suspicions of fraud and avoid the risk of a post-election conflict that would make the country ungovernable is to declare the results unauditable, annul the 28-J elections and call for new elections,” he stresses.
Would holding new elections help clarify the situation or lead to a scenario similar to the current one? “If there is anything that has been demonstrated in these elections, it is that the electoral college, the National Electoral Council, and the bodies responsible for administering justice, have been entirely co-opted by the authorities,” says Carolina Jiménez Sandoval of WOLA, who warns. It would be very complicated logistically, and it is not clear whether the opposition would want to accept a rerun, as it would imply harming the will of the millions of people who voted on July 28.
Diplomacy on the go
What is currently underway is a diplomatic apparatus led by the few countries in the region that currently have a channel of dialogue with Venezuela, Brazil, Colombia and Mexico. If this diplomatic intervention finally succeeds in convincing the parties to sit at the negotiating table, many questions will be raised about the concessions plan of the Maduro circle, which is being investigated by the International Court of Justice, as well as investigations into open corruption in several countries. And a bounty on his head in the United States. “At this moment, Maduro has preferred the scenario of repression and forging alliances with very powerful international friends before surrendering. For some analysts, doing so strengthens his negotiating position, showing that he is able to repress without caring about the consequences, and that he has important support, so he wants to negotiate from a position of strength,” says Jiménez Sandoval.
At the same time, the United States is committed to coordinating with its regional allies from a cautious position, avoiding recognizing Edmundo González as president, with the aim of leaving certain channels of communication open and “not blowing up all the bridges.” I hope that any negotiations undertaken by the international community will be carried out taking into account the will of the millions of Venezuelans who expressed themselves with great courage, despite all the obstacles, on July 28.”
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