Yet a new doctrine Ursula von der Leyen To reassess the EU’s diplomatic and economic relations with China, eyes are now turning to her joint trip with the French president Emmanuel Macron To the Chinese capital, with a lot at stake. In 2022, China will be the union’s third partner in merchandise exports and the first in imports.
to Alicja Pachulskafrom the European Center for Foreign Policy, this trip will be used by Xi Jinping To try to convince some European leaders to get back to work.
Pachulska explains: “We have the most important players, such as Germany and France, and the business circles in those two countries have a very high interest, really very high, to do business again. And with Macron, this business delegation is certainly a signal that Beijing Economic cooperation remains high on the Paris agenda. but also at the level of the European Union as a whole. And this was very clear in von der Leyen’s speech: Europe is not for disintegration, this disintegration in the American way.
Bachulska also asserts that, as Von der Leyen herself described it, Reduce riskBut this will not be easy at all.
Pachulska admits, “This would be very difficult in practice, given how revisionist Xi Jinping has been and the way our economy has become politicized in the past decade. And also given his ambitions to create this dependency to protect China from external shocks.”
Macron’s turn
intention Emmanuel Macron It is to dissuade China from getting closer to Russia. For experts, there’s little wiggle room, since The nature of Sino-Russian relations is very strategic.
Antoine Bondaza professor at the Paris Institute of Political Studies, believes that Macron and von der Leyen can only warn Beijing against Possible consequences in the event of an increase in military support for Russia. They should also, of course, try to get more clarity about Russia’s possible deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus.
“President Macron, of course, has the legitimacy to bring up the issue and to raise the issue with China for two reasons,” Bondaz explains. “in the first place, France, of course, is a country with nuclear weapons. And secondly, France, unlike the United States and the United Kingdom, is not part of any nuclear sharing agreement like these two countries are.
“I think the French president should be very aware of the limited influence he has on Xi Jinping,” continues Bondaz. France, compared to China, today is a lightweight, although it is a permanent member of the Security Council. The relationship is highly asymmetrical and there is little Macron can convince Xi Jinping of. It is good that we try to keep the channel of communication open, but we must be very realistic in our expectations and keep them very limited, ”the expert concludes.
Bondaz and Pachulska agree Sensitive techniques are key in this relationship. Although this does not mean that China has the upper hand, because it is still an exporting power To a large extent depends on the preservation of these exports and access to European markets.
On the other hand, European politics will focus more on having its own strategy to enjoy these cutting-edge technologies without having to depend on one actor or another.
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