the International Economy It will continue to brake and grow by 2.4 percent 2023 After achieving this by 3% in 2022, an updated economic outlook report from the International Monetary Fund is released today. United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (United Nations Conference on Trade and Development)UNCTAD)However, its accounts have been declining for six months by three-tenths onwards.
Moreover, l 2024 an agency United nations It expects a slight recovery in the global economy, which will grow by 2.5 percent, according to its estimates.
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What is UNCTAD and what is its role?
Established in 1964 as a permanent intergovernmental body, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) is the principal body of the United Nations General Assembly dealing with trade, investment and development.
In general, the UNCTAD It warns that “growth has slowed in most regions compared to last year and very few countries are bucking this trend,” including… MexicoBrazil, RussiaChina or Japan.
In the Old Continent, the report warns of: European Union “On the brink of recession” and is revising its forecasts from half a year ago further down: if then it expected the G27 to grow by 0.7 percent, it is now lowering that figure to 0.4 percent, when the increase picks up in 2022. gross domestic product Regional 3.4 percent.
The report expects some recovery in 2024year in which growth gross domestic product In the European Union, it will always be 1.2 percent, according to the report.
German recession
On the European continent Germany You will see your gross domestic product 0.6 percent in 2023, while there will be modest increases in France (0.9 percent). Italy (0.6 percent), United kingdom (0.4 percent) or higher Russia (2.2 percent), which is the country that will benefit from comparison with last year’s bad numbers, when its economy declined by 2.1 percent because it was most affected by the sanctions.
Experts from the agency say: “The stagnation or decline in real wages across the continent, combined with fiscal austerity, is slowing growth.” United nations.
America
For all of America UNCTAD It expects economic growth of 2 percent, nine-tenths more than estimated in April, thanks to significant upward revisions in countries such as United States, Mexico, or Brazil, Although it will slow to 1.8 percent in 2024, figures similar to the main regional economy, United State (2 percent this year, 1.9 percent next year).
The report analyzes that “despite the increase in interest rates, the US economy has contradicted the most negative expectations, witnessing a moderate economic slowdown so far.”
the UNCTAD He attributes this resilience to strong spending by American consumers, abandoning financial austerity and active monetary intervention to stop the crisis that some banks suffered at the beginning of the year.
in latin america The organization expects slightly higher growth, at 2.3 percent (one point more than expected in April), which will fall to 1.8 percent next year, although the situation in the region’s major economies will be very mixed.
Good forecast for Brazil
Yes stop Mexico Growth this year is estimated at 3.2 percent and 2.1 percent next year Argentina GDP is expected to decline by 2.4 percent this year and 0.6 percent next year; Brazil For its part, it will achieve a significant increase in its economy by 3.3% in 2023 (2.4 points more than estimated in April) and 2.3% in 2024.
to Chinathe UNCTAD Its growth was adjusted this year by reducing it by two-tenths (4.6 percent), although it expects it to accelerate to 4.8 percent next year, at a time when the Asian giant is showing “signs of recovery compared to last year.” 2022But it faces weak domestic consumer demand and private investment.”
“but, China He added: “We have more fiscal policy space than other large economies to address these challenges.” UNCTADand it is in the case of the neighbor Japan It is estimated that the national economy will grow by 2.3 percent in 2023, and only 0.9 percent in 2024.
At the global level, UNCTAD It recommends “institutional reforms to the global financial architecture, more realistic policies to address inflation, inequality and sovereign debt, as well as stronger supervision of key markets.”
When issuing the report, the UN Secretary-General stressed that “to protect the global economy from future systemic crises, we must avoid the policy mistakes of the past and adopt a positive reform agenda.” UNCTAD– Costa Rican Rebecca Greenspan.
MRA
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