Main Events
This morning’s data will be the first estimate of GDP for June, which will complete the second quarter of the year.
But previous monthly data showed the economy stagnated in April, before growing by 0.4% in May, which was It is seen as an initial boost to a Labour government..
Introduction: UK GDP in the Spotlight
Good morning and welcome to our continuing coverage of business news, financial markets and the global economy.
How strong or weak will the UK economy be at the end of Rishi Sunak’s term?
We will know shortly when the GDP data for June and the second quarter of 2024 will be published.
Economists in the city expect the UK to post a strong quarter of growth. GDP is forecast to grow by 0.6% between April and June, a slight slowdown from the 0.7% recorded between January and March.
But in June alone, the economy may have stuttered, with no growth forecast.
Sanjay Raja, UK Chief Economist German BankIt confirms that the services sector has strengthened its activity in the last quarter:
According to our calculations, the services economy is likely to rebound by 0.7% on a quarterly basis, despite expected contractions in the manufacturing and construction sectors during the same quarter.
On the spending side, we expect government spending, business investment, inventories and net acquisitions to provide most of the support to quarterly GDP.
The strength – or otherwise – of the UK economy will also influence how quickly the Bank of England feels confident about cutting interest rates again, after inflation rose less than expected in July:
Agenda
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7am GMT: UK GDP report for June
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7am GMT: UK June trade report
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7:00am GMT: UK GDP Q2 2024 report
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9:00 AM GMT: Norges Bank interest rate decision
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9.30am GMT: UK labour productivity statistics
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1:30 PM GMT: US Weekly Jobless Claims
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1:30 PM GMT: US Retail Sales for July
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