Forecast Center and Climate Center of This month, the Cuban Meteorological Institute issued forecasts for hurricane activity for 2024 in the North Atlantic.
according to NB Shared by journalist Lazaro Manuel Alonso, there is expected to be a very active hurricane season.
Given its importance, we publish the full memorandum from the specialized authority.
Tropical cyclones and hurricanes 2024
For the 2024 hurricane season, twenty (20) tropical cyclones are expected to form throughout the North Atlantic Basin, of which eleven (11) may reach hurricane status.
Of the total number of tropical cyclones, fourteen (14) can develop in the Atlantic Ocean region, four (4) in the Caribbean Sea and another two (2) in the Gulf of Mexico.
The probability that at least one hurricane will develop and intensify in the Caribbean is very high (85%) and that a hurricane from the Atlantic will penetrate the Caribbean is 70%.
Affects Cuba
The risk of Cuba being affected by at least one hurricane is 80%. Even greater is the risk facing Cuba that at least one tropical cyclone will affect it, with a probability of up to 90%.
Favorable conditions for an active season
The basic oceanic and atmospheric conditions that regulate tropical cyclone activity over the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea will be conducive to a very active hurricane season.
The sea surface temperature in the tropical band of the North Atlantic Ocean showed high values from June 2023 to April 2024. Models indicate that this warming could continue during the hurricane season and positively affect the formation and development of tropical cyclones.
Another important factor to consider when forecasting hurricane season is that the current El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events are beginning to weaken.
Most models predict that the current El Niño current may end in May, with neutral conditions developing later. There is a high probability that La Niña and the Southern Oscillation (AENOS) will develop in the coming months, which will also lead to a very active hurricane season.
The regional atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic Ocean showed signs of active behavior during March and April, constituting another favorable condition for the development of cyclonic activity.
An update to the 2024 forecast for hurricane activity in the North Atlantic will be released on August 1.
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