There is only a 14% chance of complying with the Paris Agreement: UN

Next week, world leaders head to Dubai, United Arab Emirates, for the Conference of the Parties (COP), the annual UN climate meeting, to conclude the conference. The first “global balance”And who resides Progress towards achieving goals Paris Agreement. UNEP does not hesitate to point out how far countries are from achieving these goals. Today, ahead of the UN Climate Change Conference (COP28), it publishes a scathing report titled Broken record – Temperatures reach new highs, yet world fails to cut emissions (again), Translated into Spanish as Broken record: Temperatures reach new highs, however The world is failing to cut emissions (again).

The report concludes that instead of declining, Global greenhouse gas emissions increased by 1.2% Between 2021 and 2022, and They are currently at a record level. To keep global warming within the Paris Agreement limit of two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, emissions would need to be cut by 28% in just seven years. 42% decrease If we have any chance of stopping temperature rise to 1.5 degrees, which is the most ambitious goal of the agreement.

“This year’s report is called a ‘broken record’ for a reason,” said Taryn Fransen, co-author of the report and director of science, research and data at the World Resources Institute. “This year not only did the world break previous emissions and temperature records, but as authors, we know we look like a broken record. “Year after year, we say the world is not doing enough to tackle climate change.”

COP28: Will the goals of the Paris Agreement be achieved?

Humanity is going in the wrong direction. Unless countries are serious about raising their strategies and ambitions, The world is on track to seriously exceed the Paris goalsThe report indicated that temperatures range between 2.5 and 2.9 degrees Celsius. That would be catastrophic, given the effects we’ve already seen with temperatures rising by 1.1 degrees, and considering that mere fractions of a degree exacerbate the damage. September this year was 1.8 degrees warmer on average than pre-industrial times, beating the previous record for the month by 0.5 degrees. Although this does not mean that we have exceeded the 1.5 degree limit stipulated in the Paris Agreement, because it refers to sustained temperatures, not monthly records.

The document adds that: Governments plan to produce more than double the amount of fossil fuels by 2030 than the Paris Agreement projections may allow, although renewable energy prices continue to fall and electric vehicle adoption increases. “The problem is the rhythm,” Francine explains. He added: “Measures are not being adopted quickly enough, because we have wasted decades without taking action. We are currently taking action and it is having an impact. But we have to do it Do it faster“.

Switching to renewable energy represents a sound economic policy with many side benefits. In the United States, the Inflation Control Act of 2022 flows into hundreds of dollars Billions of dollars in the green economy and has already generated 75 thousand jobs, according to estimates. Burning less fossil fuels also improves air quality, which reduces health care costs. So do it once. “It’s frustrating but it’s also good news, because it shows us that it’s possible,” says Anne Olhoff, chief scientific editor of the new report. “There is no good reason not to do so. Most countries and policymakers do not have good reasons not to act this way.