(Bloomberg Opinion) — The world is likely to exceed 1.5°C of global warming in at least one of the next five years.
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There is a 66% chance that global temperatures will exceed this level before 2027 and that this will happen with increasing frequency thereafter, according to research from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). 1.5 degrees is the limit set out in the Paris climate agreement that would help mitigate the worst effects of climate change.
Global temperatures are rising at a record rate, and it will continue to do so. An El Niño phenomenon is expected in the coming months, which generally leads to higher global temperatures in the year following its development. That means one of the next five years will likely be the warmest on record, surpassing the 2016 record, according to the report.
It is a stark reminder of the need for stronger policies to keep global warming below the long-term goal of the Paris agreement. Only a handful of G20 countries are doing enough to stay in line with 1.5°C, according to a BloombergNEF report.
Despite the cooling effects of La Niña, which have helped keep temperatures down for the past three years, records are still being broken. Last July temperatures in the UK reached an all-time high of 40.3°C, and new highs have already been observed this year, with Spain and Portugal experiencing their warmest April on record. The end of this cooling cycle and the onset of El Niño, along with other climate-related influences, will increase temperatures.
“Mean global temperatures are expected to continue to rise, causing us to move further and further away from the climate we are used to,” said Leon Hermanson, an expert with the UK Weather Service.
Rain patterns will also change according to the research, which indicates that parts of Australia will receive less rain over the next five years, while northern Europe, the Sahel and Alaska are expected to see more precipitation.
ORIGINAL NOTE: The scientist is set to break the key to the 1.5°C limit of global warming already
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