Technical analysis of the evolution of the Covid-19 epidemic by Public Health England (PHE) indicates that the delta variant, initially identified in India, causes twice as many hospitalizations as the Kent or British strain, now known as Alpha. Most of those admitted did not complete the course of vaccination.
This data is what epidemiologists are most concerned about in a context where the increasing prevalence of the new variant, which is already the most prevalent in the UK, is casting doubt on whether the government can confirm the general lifting of restrictions from June 21. . But a more robust assessment will only be possible with more data.
The quantity and quality of data and analysis documents published by PHE cannot be compared with that of other countries, according to experts. But the geographical distribution of the new variable affects its universality. Because the central data registry is now fed primarily by local health protection groups (HPT) focused on suppressing outbreaks.
Another effect on the data is that the extension of testing among schoolchildren and teachers can distort the distribution of the epidemic by age. The numbers have raised seemingly unfounded alarms about the severity of the epidemic in schools. Its publication coincided with the approval of the regulatory agency for the Pfizer vaccine for children aged 12 to 15 years.
The number of infections doubles every nine days, the number of hospitalizations is 25% in the past week, and the number of deaths has decreased by 5.3%. 5% of those hospitalized (3.7% in Delta) were vaccinated with the two doses, and like last week, two vaccinated people died. The general map is that the delta variable increases its presence in all regions.
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