A report published today by the Swiss reinsurer, Swiss Re, warned that the global economy will decline by 18% if no action is taken against climate change and a 3.2-degree rise in global temperatures, showing a greater risk of recession due to global warming in regions such as Asia. Or Latin America.
The report was implemented by subjecting 48 major global economies, which account for 90% of global GDP, to a stress test, against four possible scenarios, with a drop of 18% in the most pessimistic countries and 4% in the most optimistic (realizing) that global heat It rises no more than 2 degrees, in line with the Paris Agreement).
Of the countries studied, Asians were among the countries with the economies worst facing climate change: The five countries most at risk of severe recessions are Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, India, and Thailand.
The study indicates that China, ranked 41, could see its GDP drop by as much as 24% as global average temperatures rise by more than 3 degrees.
The Latin American economies included in the test are not doing well either, with Argentina at 28th, Mexico at 29th and Chile at 36th, and even worse than Brazil (38th), Peru (40th), Colombia (42nd) and Venezuela. (43).
And the countries with the lowest recession risk according to the study, in order, are Finland, Switzerland, Austria and Portugal, while Spain ranks 12th.
Among the large Western economies, the United States ranked seventh, Germany ranked tenth, the United Kingdom ranked 15, and France ranked 27.
The report predicts a drop of 10% in GDP for the United States, Canada and the United Kingdom in the worst-case scenario, and 11% in Europe.
The study highlights the countries with the largest potential impacts are those that “have the fewest resources to adapt and mitigate the effects of rising temperatures,” and which calls for more public and private actions to achieve a world free of zero emissions.
“By 2050, the world population will grow to nearly 10 billion people, especially in the regions most affected by climate change, so we must act now to mitigate risks and achieve carbon neutrality,” said the head of the Swiss Institute for Repetition. Thierry Leger.
Fountain: EFE
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