Madrid, May 22. (European Press) –
Average rainfall from storms in the UK and Ireland between October 2023 and March 2024 is 35% more intense compared to a 1.2°C cooler pre-industrial climate, according to researchers in a study published by World Weather Attribution on Wednesday.
To reach this conclusion, experts combined observations with climate models and relied on the Storm Intensity Index (IST), which they used to determine which rainy days to study based on the strength the winds would exert and the regional area affected. .
Thus, they concluded that in the current climate, with a temperature rise of 1.2°C, stormy days with high winds like those recorded between 2023 and 2024 would occur every four years, and associated rainfall would be expected about once every five years. . On the other hand, the monsoon rainfall between October and March was more extreme, a climate event expected to occur once every 20 years.
In this context, they explained that average rainfall on stormy days has increased due to climate change by about 25% according to their observations and about 20% according to the combination of observations with climate models. In other words, the level of precipitation recorded between 2023 and 2024 has become more likely by a factor of ten.
In turn, they highlighted that the rainfall recorded between October and March increased in intensity by between 6 and 25%, according to a set of observations and climate models. That is, the level of precipitation in 2023 and 2024 has become more likely by a factor of at least four.
In addition, scientists noted that precipitation between October 2023 and March 2024 increased in volume by 25%, based on their observations, and between 6% and 25%, based on the combination of observers and climate models. Or what is the same, that the level of precipitation in 2023 and 2024 has become more likely by a factor of at least four.
Likewise, they warn that according to climate models, average rainfall on stormy days will become 4% more intense, and monsoon rains 2% more intense, in a climate 0.8°C warmer than now. This means that average rainfall will become more likely by a factor of 1.6 and monsoon rainfall by a factor of 1.5.
On the other hand, they point out that the combination of models and observations suggests that a stormy season like the one seen between 2023 and 2024 is less likely by a factor of 1.4 due to climate change.
Overall, scholars note that the UK and Ireland need comprehensive flood risk management that includes legislative frameworks, strategic planning and significant funding. In this sense, they point out that flood relief projects in Ireland have been incorporating nature-based solutions alongside traditional engineering solutions for more than 20 years, and that large cities in the UK are beginning to incorporate them into their designs.
In addition, the UK and Irish Meteorological Services are continually improving impact-based weather forecasting mechanisms to facilitate the translation of warning into action, in partnership with other government bodies to ensure the safety of their citizens.
“Subtly charming bacon junkie. Infuriatingly humble beer trailblazer. Introvert. Evil reader. Hipster-friendly creator.”