Reform UK, Nigel Farage’s populist party that could overwhelm the Conservatives

he Back to the political front line From populism Nigel Farage This was a new headache for the Conservative Party in the presidential election campaign. General elections in the UK. the match ‘UK Reform His party has surged in the polls since Farage took over as party leader in early June and announced his candidacy for Clacton, in what would be his eighth attempt to win a seat in the House of Commons. The leader of the far-right Conservatives, one of the main Brexit EnginesWithin a few weeks he has managed to put his new party within striking distance of the Conservatives, who may see themselves as having the upper hand in the parliamentary elections. Next July 4th.

Farage has achieved Take advantage of discontent For a large part of the electorate with the Prime Minister’s government, Rishi SunakWho was unable to respond to the rising costs of living and fulfill his promise to end the crisis Irregular migrants Across the English Channel. The populist leader presented himself as the only person willing to accept this mission Radical decisions To stop immigration and Preserving national identityAs well as defending traditional values ​​in the so-called “cultural battle” against the left on issues such as sexual identity.

Media presence

The popularity he gained in the years of Brexit and his constant presence in the media, especially in his daily program on the channel GB NewsAnd she worked to attract conservative voters again. “that it charismatic man “He attracts certain people because of his image as an ordinary person,” explains the political scientist. Peter Dore, professor at Cardiff University and author of several books on conservation in the United Kingdom. “But it is still a manufactured image. We must not forget that A millionaire He added: “He was educated in a private school and worked for years in the city of London.”

Farage’s letter addressed to A Aging population, who are nostalgic for the years of the British Empire and who voted overwhelmingly for Brexit. Majority group in Clactona constituency with high levels of inactivity and high crime rates where 70% of voters voted to leave the European Union. In this coastal area of ​​England, about 150 kilometres east of London, the party that Farage led in the years leading up to Brexit, UKIP, gained support. First representative in the House of Commons. This is an achievement that he aspires to repeat in these elections.

few actors

Although studies indicate thatUK Reform You can get between a fifteen% And a 20% of the votesDespite overtaking the Conservatives and having the second largest voting power, the party will not get more than a handful of MPs because of Non-proportional voting systemWhich awards the seat to the candidate who wins the largest number of votes in each electoral district, regardless of the margin relative to his competitors. “The Conservative Party will have more representatives because it has concentrated support in constituencies in the south of England, while support for UK reform is much more widely distributed. Farage’s party will not win many seats, but it will They will take enough votes away from the Conservatives “They will open the door to Labor or Lib Dem victories in seats that were previously in Conservative hands,” Dore says.

Much Snack Key leaders of the Conservative Party also insisted throughout the election campaign that Vote on ‘UK reform’ will benefit LabourWhich could become the most voting force in traditionally conservative constituencies. Some party members have raised the possibility of a deal. Agreement with Farage To prevent him from fielding candidates for key seats, which he already did in 2019 and which helped Boris Johnson gain a clear majority in Parliament. But the leader of “Reform UK” ruled out this possibility, realizing this The wear and tear of “conservatives” Much bigger this time and this is her chance to present herself as the real deal. An alternative to the Labor Party.

A hypothetical victory for the populist party over the conservatives would mean a A difficult setback for Sunak’s formationHe will have to begin an internal process to determine the party’s course if the heavy defeat predicted by opinion polls is confirmed. Some of its members, especially the hard-liners, may welcome this Founding of Farage Even his appointment as the new leader of the Conservative Party, a decision that is rejected by the most moderate MPs in the party in its entirety, and may open a new internal rift that is difficult to mend.