OPEC raised its forecast for global oil demand through mid-century, even as the world transitions away from fossil fuels to avoid catastrophic climate change.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said in its World Oil Outlook that oil consumption will rise by 16 percent over the next two decades to reach 116 million barrels per day in 2045, about 6 million barrels per day more than previously expected.
The union claims that road transport, petrochemicals and aviation will drive growth.
India represents the largest expansion, doubling its consumption to nearly 12 million barrels per day, followed by China, with an increase of 4 million barrels per day, or 26 percent.
OPEC Secretary-General Haitham Al-Ghais said: “There has been opposition to the view that the world should look to subsidize fossil fuels, as policies and targets related to other energies fail due to costs and a more nuanced understanding of the scale of energy challenges.” .
Western leaders are reevaluating climate policies in the face of inflation-weary voters, and last month the UK postponed a ban on the sale of petrol cars.
Energy companies BP and Shell have refocused on their traditional oil and gas businesses after experiencing a faster transition to renewable energy.
However, few consider continued use of hydrocarbons sustainable within the time frame expected by OPEC.
The International Energy Agency expects demand for fossil fuels to stabilize by the end of this decade, as countries shift to renewable energy sources and electric vehicles.
The report says investment in new oil projects must stop now if governments want to achieve goals of reducing emissions to zero and limiting temperature rise to 1.5 degrees.
This summer may have been the hottest in human history so far, causing deadly heatwaves in India, Greece, Hawaii and Japan, while increasingly powerful storms caused devastation in Asia and Africa.
In the Atlantic Ocean, exceptionally warm waters have caused widespread coral bleaching and some mortality on coral reefs in the Florida Keys.
OPEC also raised its expectations for the amount of oil it will import in the coming years, although most of its members, who have been affected by lack of investment, operational disruptions, and political instability, are currently unable to pump their production quotas to full capacity.
It expects OPEC liquids supplies to increase by about 14 percent to 38.9 million barrels per day by the end of the decade and eventually reach 46.1 million per day in 2045.
However, the data does not break down separate figures for crude oil, which OPEC uses in its production quotas system, so it does not give a full indication of the organization’s influence on global markets.
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