“It is a year of challenges, it is a year of external threats, above all, because we have seen that inflation is just beginning to contain the United States, and we still do not know for sure what will happen in the United States. The United States is in a potential recession.”
“I think we’re not going to see a recession in the US, I think we’re going to see a slowdown like the one we’re seeing, but I remain optimistic,” he added.
Carranza, head of Mexico’s BanCoppel, will chair ABM at the banking conference to be held Thursday and Friday in Merida, in the southeast of the country, where approximately 50 members of the group will gather.
As a key issue, the banker will promote credit growth, which rose by 12% in nominal terms in 2022 and represented for the first time in history 40% of Mexico’s GDP, a record still lagging behind. countries.
“The first issue is how do we increase credit, we want to put in more credit, the banks have a very large amount of liquidity, we have more than 1.4 trillion pesos ($70 billion), which is the difference between deposits and the credit portfolio that we have,” he explained.
between growth, investment and risk
The new representative of the Mexican Bank pointed to inflation as the main risk, which closed at 7.82% annually in 2022, the highest close for the year in 22 years and so far this century.
“This year we have threats, we have very important challenges, we have the challenge that inflation has not been fully controlled, not only in Mexico, but also in the United States, which is our main trading partner and we see that globally as a real problem,” he said.
But Carranza considered that the government cut spending in a “very responsible way”, while the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) raised the interest rate to a record 11% to deal with this phenomenon.
“What I think is we’re already very close to the inflation ceiling and that leads us to the fact that although we still think rates can grow a little bit more, we’re really very close to that ceiling,” he predicted.
On the other hand, he highlighted the Mexican GDP growth of 3.1% in 2022, in addition to foreign investment of $35 thousand million, a figure that is expected to exceed $40 thousand million this year.
He attributes this in part to the phenomenon of value chain transfer, or “approximation”, which he represents in the electric car factory in which Tesla, owned by US tycoon Elon Musk, will be installed this year in the northern state of Nuevo León.
For this reason, he cited the “optimistic” growth forecast of 1.8% of Mexico’s GDP in 2023.
“I think we can have a nice surprise in the second half of the year because of all these FDI conditions, inflation control and the possibility of interest rate cuts,” he said.
Regarding Tesla, he explained, “Mexico is a country that offers great qualities and benefits that help these companies, these projects that began to arrive in Mexico this year, to achieve exceptional performance.”
Good relationship with Lopez Obrador
In response to a question about the relationship between banks and the government of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, who at the beginning of his six-year term was at odds with the sector for accusing him of excessive commissions, Carranza affirmed that it was “very good”.
He explained that they are looking for banks to provide the sector’s needs in a “respectful and clear” manner.
“The truth is it’s been a very good relationship, and I think we’ve worked very well with all the authorities, and I think going forward we’ll continue to address the concerns, what issues the government is concerned about,” he said.
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