Germany and the UK with tuned engines weigh on Europe. Southern countries are out of the equation.
There will be a recession in Germany, already recognized by the German government itself. They projected negative growth of -0.4% in 2023 as a whole, and the German government warned on Wednesday that the energy crisis was likely to cause a contraction next year for the third time since the financial crisis, with production falling 0.4%.
Germany will enter a recession by 2023, and Economy Minister Robert Habeck expects inflation to remain at 7% next year. The new forecast is a resounding downward revision of the spring forecast, which estimated growth of 2.5%, and coincides with the estimates of the major institutes of economic studies, starting with the International Monetary Fund, which in their latest forecasts refer to the same scenario of stagflation in the main European economy.
The British bond touches its highest levels in 1998 and the fear of “Black Friday” is growing.
Germany and the United Kingdom are key to the current European economy. Germany has a tuned engine, and so does the engine of British politics. The two economies of the old continent, one outside the European Union and the other within the European Union, are shaping the problems in Europe as a whole.
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