ANKARA, Türkiye – High inflation has impoverished his people. His government has been accused of negligence in its response to the catastrophic earthquakes that killed more than 50,000 people just three months ago. He was facing a newly unified opposition that had vowed to abandon its continued orientation toward one-man rule.
Despite all that, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has outperformed his main rival in the Turkish elections, according to official results published on Monday. And although he did not reach the absolute majority, which is why the country held a second round on May 28, there are clear signs that Erdogan will win the elections again.
“For Erdogan, this is his great end,” said Mehmet Ali Kulat, a leading Turkish pollster who predicted a stronger opposition victory.
After almost all votes were counted on Monday, the official preliminary results gave Erdogan 49.5% of the vote against 44.9% for his main rival and opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu. The third candidate, Sinan Ogan, received 5.2 percent, and his right-wing supporters are likely to vote for Erdogan in the run-off, according to analysts. Finally, Erdogan’s party and its allies retained an overwhelming majority in the parliamentary vote, which likely increased their chances of being re-elected.
But the fact that Erdoğan could not win more than 50 percent of the vote — even after using many resources of power to tip the electoral balance in his favor — suggests that some voters are tired of his financial management and his overly consolidation. The power is in their hands.
Many Turkish media outlets are owned by pro-Erdogan businessmen, which has ensured him a steady stream of positive coverage and little interest in allegations of corruption or mismanagement. The government has forced some critical news organizations to close, fined others for their coverage, and prosecuted some journalists. Reporters Without Borders ranks Türkiye in Rank 165 In terms of freedom of the press, out of 180 countries that qualify.
The opposition has not officially recognized Erdogan’s leadership or challenged the figures, but said it would work to win the runoff.
“We will rise up and win this election together,” Kilicdaroglu wrote on Twitter on Monday. “In the end it will be just what our nation says.”
During his 20 years as Turkey’s dominant political leader, first as prime minister and then president, Erdogan and his AKP have regularly defeated their opponents at the polls. The last time Erdogan ran in elections was in 2018, and he won 52 percent of the vote in the first round, defeating his three closest opponents by 22 percentage points. This time he fared worse, sparking the first presidential run-off in Turkey’s history.
On Sunday, voter turnout across the country was around 89 percent, underscoring Turks’ great faith in the elections.
Erdogan faced significant resistance before the vote.
Since 2018, Turkey has suffered from a currency plunge and painful inflation that topped 80 percent last year and hit 44 percent in April.
His opponents have gathered in an unprecedented six-party coalition that supports Kilicdaroglu. Throughout the campaign, the opposition courted voters by promising to reform the economy, restore civil liberties, and build a more inclusive society, in stark contrast to Erdogan’s polarizing rhetoric.
But it wasn’t enough.
Analysts called the results the latest example of Erdoğan’s formidable survival skills.
Kolat said the earthquakes on February 6 helped Erdogan in an unexpected way. The massive destruction not only left large numbers of people homeless, but also put pressure on communities near the affected area by increasing rent prices. This increased the appeal of Erdogan’s election promises to build new homes in the earthquake-affected area within a year.
“The citizens said: If someone can build me a house, it is Erdogan,” Kolat said.
But the president also used his power to turn the campaign around in his favour. As the president in a regime with few checks on presidential power, Erdogan made effective use of the state as part of his campaign by offering new benefits to voters using resources from the national treasury.
Erdogan campaigned by dismissing his opponents as incompetent, saying they were backed by a Western conspiracy and abetted by terrorists. He also sought opportunities to associate himself in the minds of voters with images of growing Turkish power and independence, parked a warship in central Istanbul for families to visit, and became the first owner of a Turkish-made electric car.
He and his ministers present him as the defender of religious Turks, stoking their fears by telling them that the opposition wants to take away their newfound freedoms and the expansion of gay rights. Although Turkey is a predominantly Muslim society, it was established as a staunchly secular state that kept most outward signs of religion out of public life. Erdoğan relaxed some of those rules, including banning women in public office from wearing the headscarf.
These issues seem to have convinced enough voters for Erdogan to lead the race.
“Political identification is very ‘fixed’ and cannot be easily undone by new information or experience,” Howard Eisenstat, associate professor of history at St. Lawrence University, wrote in an email. “Erdogan’s emphasis on nationalism, terrorism and nefarious Western conspiracies is no small feat for To many voters: It is at the heart of his worldview.
Contrary to what Erdogan could offer the electorate, the opposition could only make promises.
To win their support, Kilicdaroglu mobilized six parties including right-wing nationalists, loyal secularists, and Islamists, which is seen as an achievement. But many voters wondered how such a broad coalition could hold together, let alone run the country.
said Liesel Hintz, associate professor of international relations at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies.
According to Hintz, the fact that Kilicdaroglu belongs to a religious minority may also have alienated some voters. He is an Alevi, a member of an unorthodox Islamic sect that displeases some members of Turkey’s Sunni majority.
“Some Sunnis may not want to vote for an Alawite,” Hintz said.
While no voter interviewed in recent weeks has publicly expressed such sentiments, many expressed concern about another minority group, criticizing the opposition for working with Turkey’s main pro-Kurdish party and comparing that decision to forming an alliance with terrorists.
Turkey has waged a long and deadly battle against Kurdish militants who are considered terrorists by the Turkish government, the United States and the European Union. In addition, Turkish authorities often accuse Kurdish politicians of collaborating with militants, and many have been imprisoned, tried, or expelled on these charges.
Erdogan has capitalized on the fear of these links, and many voters believe the opposition is sympathetic to this militancy.
“I am worried that the other side will win and that it will be bad for the country,” said Malika Kurt, a recent graduate, after voting for Erdogan on Sunday. In particular, he noted his concern about the release of persons imprisoned on terrorism-related charges.
As a devout woman who wears a headscarf, she also praised Erdogan for calling for women like herself to dress however they like, and feared an opposition government would strip those rights in the name of state secularism.
“I can’t imagine what situation we would be in if we lost,” said Kurt, 24. “I think our freedoms will be limited if they win, when it comes to veils and other issues.”
Savak Timur Cooperated from Ankara and Jolsyn Harman from Istanbul.
Ben Hubbard is the Istanbul bureau chief. He spent more than ten years in the Arab world, including Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Yemen. is an author Mohammed bin Salman: The rise of Mohammed bin Salman to power. @employee
“Award-winning alcohol trailblazer. Hipster-friendly internetaholic. Twitter ninja. Infuriatingly humble beer lover. Pop culture nerd.”