After 14 years of Conservative government, the UK faced an election with a gap in voting intentions between Labour and the Conservatives. The results gave the left a landslide victory in the elections, allowing it to secure an absolute majority in the House of Commons.
The Conservative Party has been given the difficult task of fighting relegation after years of wear and tear in government and with open fronts on the economy, health and immigration. Now Labour faces the challenge of restructuring government. Affected by the worst defeat in history In 2010 and for more than a decade separated from the central executive authority.
After the results, the leader of the leftist party said. Keir StarmerHe must take into account the country’s financial situation, the ongoing health strikes and the increase in migrants crossing the English Channel to the British Isles. Three challenges will become the main ones for the next British government, in addition to the challenge of restoring public confidence in the political class after years of internal battles between the Conservatives.
economic instability
The UK economy has been in a constant state of ups and downs following Brexit, the Covid-19 pandemic and the former minister’s controversial tax reform. Liz Truss This led to the pound falling to its lowest level in half a century. His successor, Rishi SunakThen he faced a situation that still causes concern among the British.
In recent years, the productivity gap between the UK and countries such as France, Germany or the US has doubled. Wages have been stagnant since 2005, and investment has declined as a result of leaving the EU.
“There are major issues such as relatively high government debt and deficits as a result of the pandemic and high inflation caused by the energy crisis,” says the chief economist at consultancy KPMG. Yael Silvin“But many of these are not limited to the UK alone, but are shared by other Western economies, and while Brexit has not helped either, it is difficult to analyse its impact in isolation from the rest of the world,” he stresses.
Just a year after Sunak entered government, and after a series of bad omens, the UK ended 2023 in a technical recession with a 0.4% decline in the last two quarters. Only a fall in inflation to 2.3% in April, the lowest since June 2021, was a boost to the conservative economic policy now inherited by Labour.
“The Sunak government has done a good job of stabilising the economy, particularly in restoring investor confidence,” Selvin says. “What it lacked was a slightly broader vision of where the economy was headed, as well as longer-term reforms.” Due to lack of time it cannot be done.“
In his campaign statements to his voters, Starmer predicted that his first steps would “bring economic stability,” a promise he sought to reassure the population, which would not be easy. “One of the main challenges for the next government is the reality of the public finances.” They won’t have enough money. “They have to be creative and try to move the economy in the right direction, using other tools available to them such as regulation or other types of investment incentives. To boost investment in infrastructure, education or the green agenda,” he concludes.
The fruits of what is decided during the next year are likely to take longer than the duration of the Legislative Council, “so it is necessary to think strategically for the long term and not just work with Five year formula “In Parliament,” he concludes.
public health disaster
At the beginning of the year, the United Kingdom held a major six-day toilet strike, The longest in the history of the National Health System (National Health Service). Among their demands is the desire to restore their full salaries after years of cuts, an issue that has not been addressed despite demands since 2022.
The demonstration marked an escalation of tensions in the dispute between health workers and the British government. The political conflict that is being exacerbated by Cost of living crisis Which led to an increase in the wage gap between citizens.
“The main challenges facing the NHS are around funding, staffing and infrastructure,” says the chief policy officer at the Health Foundation. Lucinda Allen“While funding has increased in recent years, this comes after a decade of low growth before the pandemic, which, in addition to its impact, left services understaffed and under-resourced,” he adds.
For more than three-quarters of a century, the National Health Service, one of Europe’s first free health systems, has been plagued by reduced working hours. Although the majority of the population approves of public health care, Survey conducted by Ipsos and the Health Foundation In 2023 it was revealed that Only a third (33%) of Britons were satisfied with the current administration. Moreover, as Allen points out, even France, with a similar economy to Britain’s, spent 2022 Up to 25% increase in per capita health.
At the time, CEO Sunak emphasised wage growth. It was unsustainable and would have inflationary consequences.among other negative economic effects. “The government was quick to blame the strikes for the lack of progress on waiting lists, even though they were already growing long before they broke out,” he corrects.
For his part, Starmer, during his speech as newly appointed Prime Minister at 10 Downing Street, pointed out that “for too long we have taken our eyes off the many people who have worked so hard in public services; “We will rebuild the UK, and our NHS will be back to what it was,” he said, although the issue of salaries was not mentioned.
He added, “It is important that the unions and ministers in the next government reach an agreement “About what constitutes a salary, so that the NHS can focus on patient care,” says Allen.
NHS received between 2023 and 2024 With funding of 181,000 million poundsThis is £20 billion more than during the pandemic years. However, the UK currently has a waiting list. 7.6 million interventions In a country of 67 million people.
“An additional £38 billion is needed next year to enable the NHS to meet demand and improve care,” Allen explains. “But it’s not just about the amount of money, it’s also about And how to spend itHe stresses that we must allocate a greater proportion of this funding to primary and community services to prevent people from getting sick in the first place.
Unconfirmed immigration plan
Immigration has also become a central issue for the parties in this election. Both the Conservatives and Labour have called the number of immigrants in the UK “too high”, although there are deep differences over how to address this challenge.
According to data from the country’s Office for National Statistics, the number of foreigners arriving in the UK in 2022 reached an unprecedented record of 606,000 people, most of them from countries not part of the European Union.
“Since the Brexit referendum, British attitudes towards immigration have become more positive; now, around half the population want to reduce it.”“
“There is still a very small proportion of people who come to the UK as migrants; most come to work or study,” says the institute’s director of research. Thought Center British Future, Heather Rolfe. It reveals that “the number of international students has increased significantly, accounting for 40% of total migration.”
However, recently there has been a change in direction in citizens’ views. “Since the Brexit referendum, British attitudes to immigration have changed. They have become more positive.“Just over a year ago, about half the population now want to reduce it, and that’s probably because they’re unhappy with the Conservative government’s policies, because they want a solution for people drowning in the English Channel,” he adds.
The fight against “illegal immigration” was not handled effectively enough by the previous executive. Recent reforms included the controversial Rwanda deportation law, which caused a political and social uproar. “The plan has not been implemented despite Sunak’s promise that the first people would fly to Rwanda after the election. Something you won’t have to do after losing it.“Notices.
Starmer said during his election campaign that he would scrap the “Rwanda plan” to focus his efforts on destroying the businesses of organised crime groups that traffic migrants. “To be honest, it’s very difficult to solve the last problem: it’s possible that what Labour can achieve is that Better agreements with European partnersThis is what Sunak’s government did not achieve.”
In the UK, there has always been a divide between voters’ demands and parties’ proposals. For Labour, the state of the economy and the cost of living are the main issues, while immigration is more prominent among the Conservatives. “Now that immigration levels are starting to fall, there will be less pressure on the new government to show that you are in control“It could help Starmer keep the opposition at bay,” Rolfe concludes. Conservative Party.
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