The peace agreement provided that a referendum could be held on the unification of Ireland if a social majority so desired. But 25 years later, it lacks the necessary support, and while some defend its democratic importance, others warn of its dangers.
What does the 1998 agreement say? –
In the 1998 Good Friday Peace Agreement, the British and Irish governments agreed to “recognize the legitimacy of any choice freely exercised by the majority of the people of Northern Ireland (…) whether or not they would prefer to continue to support union with Great Britain. A united and sovereign Ireland”.
They found that at that time it was “the desire of the majority of the people of Northern Ireland” to “preserve the Union”.
But they recognized that “in the future, the people of the island of Ireland may (to) exercise their right to self-determination” if there is the support “of the majority of the people of Northern Ireland” and “by agreement of the parties (…) north and south, to achieve a united Ireland”.
This would merge the current British region of Northern Ireland into the neighboring Republic of Ireland – a member of the European Union – which would also have to accept unification by referendum.
– What is the situation after 25 years? –
“There are still many unresolved questions,” Duncan Morrow, professor of political science at the University of Ulster, told AFP, including how to calculate the social support needed to call a referendum, estimating that “we are still a bit far away.”
According to opinion polls, the majority of Northern Irish people would still like to remain in the UK, “but current demographic changes suggest that in 10 years there may be a majority of the Catholic population” of legal age and could tip the balance towards self-determination, he adds.
He also noted that Brexit, which 58% of Northern Irelanders voted against, had for some years been in favor of unification as a way to reintegrate the EU.
Whether the people of the Republic of Ireland will accept the cost of such unification is another question.
He wonders: “Will that require changes in the Republic of Ireland in things like the flag or the national anthem, which are very emotional things?”
Also, given Northern Ireland’s lower economic development compared to its southern neighbour, “If Irish unity costs people money in the Republic of Ireland, will it affect their vote?”
– Arguments in favor of? –
Law professor Colin Harvey, a member of the Republican civil movement “The Future of Ireland” campaigning for consultation, admits that the conditions for calling for this do not currently exist, “neither tomorrow (…) nor next year.”
But he considers that “we are heading towards it, perhaps in a decade or 15 years” and for the time being is working to “prepare things to do it well”, raise awareness and “develop political documents that mark the way” towards a “stable and responsible transition”.
He acknowledges that such kind of consultation would polarize the population, but all “democracy produces division,” he asserts. He adds, “In the elections, there are also differences, and no one proposes to cancel the elections because people have conflicting opinions.”
Reflecting on “the Good Friday Agreement, 25 years later, to all the brave peacemakers who made it possible, it is in my opinion that we would dishonor her memory if we avoided this debate about the constitutional future (…) We must face it ‘whatever the difficulty’.”
– And against? –
Former rugby star and trade union lawyer Trevor Ringland, who campaigns to build bridges between Protestants and Catholics and against the “baseless” referendum, hits back.
He argues that the population of Northern Ireland has prospered economically and socially in the last twenty-five years, and that young people define themselves less by their origins and mix more.
“You have to keep working,” he admits, but he is of the opinion that in a region with a violent past, a referendum could revive tensions and confrontations.
“It would be a setback,” he says, from which social cohesion would take decades to recover.
“We have a real chance to make sure what happened never happens again,” he asserts, noting that in the 1980s, when he played rugby for the Republic of Ireland team and his father was a Protestant policeman in the north of Northern Ireland, it was “one of the most dangerous places in the world to be an officer.” police.”
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