On May 2, municipal elections were held in England and Wales. The results were devastating for the UK Conservative Party, as they expected defeat, but not the disaster revealed by the opinion polls. They lost mayorships in all major cities, from London to Birmingham, including Manchester and Liverpool.
Since the results came out, an anxious tension has dominated the country’s political microcosm. The Conservatives, led by Prime Minister Sunak, are moving in a spiral of contradictions, searching for ways to change the course of the opinion polls, and the Labor Party, on the instructions of its leader Stamer, is pressing for a quick meeting. At the moment, no one knows the date, even Prime Minister Sunak, on whom the call depends, when asked usually answers towards the end of the second quarter of the year. Without specifying the exact day. The reality is that it must be at the latest before December 17 of this year, five years after Parliament meets for the first time after the elections in December 2019. From that date, political parties will have twenty-five seats. Days for the campaign.
The truth is that the Prime Minister does not say a single word. He likes to keep curiosity in suspense. He has the same typical response when asked by his collaborators, journalists, or curious people. He always says the same thing: “My working hypothesis is that the general elections will be held in the second half of this year.”
These days he receives the craziest ideas to shift public opinion, but the reality is that things are going wrong and the consequences of Brexit are still casting a negative shadow. To reassure his people after the disaster of the municipal elections, he confirms in his statements that the Labor Party will win, but it will not be able to govern if it does not rely on other parties. A huge mistake. There is nothing worse for a politician than accepting defeat from the beginning. This colorful statement is based on sociologist Michael Thrasher’s extrapolation of municipal election results, and concludes from this extrapolation that Labor would need 32 cross-party votes to govern. This is relatively easy, as the Liberals and Greens are willing to reach different agreement formulas. Naturally, Sunak believes that these agreements will be a disaster for the country. Analysts of all walks of life believe that the conservatives will suffer inevitable defeat in the upcoming elections. Conservatives are in hard times, lacking ideas and hope.
The situation is leading them down a wrong path, tempted by the assumptions of the far-right Raform UK party, founded by Tory firebrand Nigel Farage, though he has now abandoned it to return to the Tory hawkish fold.
No one believes Sunak when he claims he can still reverse the poll results, because the average of various opinion polls gives Labor a 20-point lead over the Conservatives. The Conservative discredit is so high and deep that, despite Labor leader Keir Starmer’s lack of charisma and lack of political audacity, he remains at the forefront at a comfortable distance from the Conservatives. The sociologist M. confirms: Custis said Labor had a 99% chance of leading the next government.
The two prime ministers who preceded Sunak criticize him for being too lukewarm in implementing Brexit, while the majority of British public opinion believes that Brexit contributed to the deterioration of public services and the economy in general. Liz Truss’s austerity policies were as meteoric as they were disastrous: her tax cuts destabilized markets and came close to overwhelming the public pension system. The madness that stopped the Bank of England and the Treasury. Despite everything, he dreams of leading the Conservatives again. More than one dream would be a nightmare. For his part, Boris Johnson, who left surrounded by scandals and lies, is driven by the desire to restore party leadership to settle scores with current Prime Minister Sunak, whom he considers the architect of his downfall.
Brexit will soon become a confrontational issue in the UK again. It will be defended by a majority within the Conservative Party, and the Labor Movement for Europe will make its way through Labour’s ranks. We will see this in the upcoming election campaign. I notice.
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