Banco Santander will announce attributable profits until September of 8,027 million euros, 9.7 percent higher than in the same period of the previous year, according to forecasts of analysts consulted by Finanzas.com.
In the sealed quarter, I chaired the group Anna Putin You will receive an attributable profit of €2,786 million, or 15 percent more at an annual rate.
The figures to be presented by the entity on October 25 are in line with the net profit of 10.3 billion euros that analysts expect for the whole of 2023, which would be a historic record for the Bank of Cantabria.
Interest margin boosts Banco Santander
Banco Santander’s results will be supported by the development of interest margin, which will reach 31,872 million euros for the year, an increase of 12 percent year-on-year.
Specifically, the interest margin will remain “strong” in Europe, thanks to the contribution of Spain and Portugal, with a possible stabilization process in Brazil, say analysts from Brazil. Deutsche Bank.
The development of the UK interest margin will present greater uncertainty, as it could be affected by Banco Santander’s more aggressive deposit offerings during the quarter.
In the sluggish quarter, the analyst consensus expected an interest margin of 10,952 million euros, 9 percent higher than in the same period of the previous year.
“Generating strong results from financial operations” worth €535 million will also contribute positively, he said. Nuria AlvarezAnalyst at R4 Banco.
On the contrary, net commissions will be “weak” and “will make it difficult to meet the growth guide for the year as a whole,” this expert explained.
Brazil, a potential positive surprise for Banco Santander
Regarding the development of the main markets in which Santander operates, a positive surprise could come from Brazil.
“We remain confident that earnings in Brazil will show a positive turnaround after two years of weakness,” UBS analysts said.
This will be possible thanks to the (widely documented) positive effects of lower interest rates on bank margins, through a greater volume of loans granted.
The development in Brazil should mark a turning point, although the Swiss bank’s analysts have doubts that it will finally happen as quickly as they expect, prompting them to increase their 2024 margin estimates by 20 percent.
On the contrary, the same sources expected a deterioration in the profits of the American Banco Santander, with a decline in income due to the “continuous contraction” of the interest margin.
Capital consumption
Regarding the CET1 capital ratio, Deutsche Bank analysts expect a decrease in the quarter by 10 basis points to 12.14%, due to share buybacks, partially offset by organic generation.
“We can see some consumption in the quarterly comparison after the first semester closed at 12.24 percent levels,” Alvarez agreed. The company expects the capital ratio to reach about 12 percent.
Regarding the messages that Banco Santander may send, the R4 Banco expert did not rule out that the facility could reduce the net commission guide for the full year.
On the contrary, the bank should repeat its guidance for double-digit growth in income, efficiency ratio (between 44 and 45 per cent) and cost of risk, less than 1.2 per cent.
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