From the moment Brexit was declared a winner in June 2016, the UK’s options for returning to the EU began to be assessed. It took longer to digest a historic divorce, and even longer to negotiate an unannounced separation, in order to avoid economic collapse. But the British seem unable to turn the page. Could the UK become the bloc’s new ‘associate member’ by 2030?
In the midst of the electoral campaign preceding next year’s elections, and in light of all opinion polls’ expectations of the formation of a new labor government led by the Labor Party. Keir Starmer (who once voted to remain in the EU), Brexit is back on the front pages due to the current Opposition Leader’s promise to “improve” the trade and cooperation agreement then negotiated by Boris Johnson.
The agreement between London and Brussels was concluded on December 24, 2020. But it did not represent the final chapter in the winding divorce. Nothing could be further from reality. Article 776 provides for a review every five years, so it provides an opportunity for both parties to return to the negotiating table. The timetable coincides with an important moment, as the Franco-German axis presented a proposal to expand the European Union with four levels of integration.
It is not that Brussels is obsessed with wanting the UK, the world’s sixth-largest economy, to recover at any cost. Priorities are different now for the community club, especially as it faces one of the most serious challenges it has faced in recent years with the arrival of large numbers of immigrants to the Italian island of Lampedusa, which has revealed deep divisions between member states.
But the invasion of Ukraine was a sign of what came before and after. The bloc’s expansion takes into account Ukraine and the Western Balkans to prevent them, one way or another, from falling under Russian control.
In any case, European diplomatic sources confirmed times The idea of a four-speed EU was also designed with Downing Street’s Starmer in mind. The proposal has been carefully balanced politically to be a possibility for London without the need for re-union or a referendum.
The potential enlargement was included in the report prepared by a group of twelve experts invited by the governments of France and Germany to assess increasing the EU’s capacity to act and strengthen the rule of law and democratic legitimacy. The text had a greater impact in the British media than in the rest of Europe, especially after Starmer said he did not want the UK to deviate from EU regulations. “It is clear that the more values we share, the more future we will have together. “There will be fewer conflicts and, in fact, we will have more different ways of solving problems.”
Facing criticism from Eurosceptics, who accuse him of wanting to “betray Brexit”, Starmer insists there are no reasons to rejoin the EU. Key members of your team, e.g Jonathan ReynoldsThey ruled out the possibility that he was an “associate member.” But what they say in public is one thing and what they say in private is another. A clear majority of Labor members favor the kind of “linked membership” offered by the Franco-German plan. They know they can’t say it publicly because there’s no appetite to reopen Pandora’s box on Brexit and risk a repeat of their 2019 election defeat. But they secretly believe that the current situation This situation is unsustainable in the long term, and the UK needs, at the very least, a closer Norway-style relationship with its largest trading partner.
The UK already belongs to the current European Political Community, the more than 40-nation dialogue forum set up by France. Moreover, at the next summit in the spring of 2024, London will be the host.
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