Will Blinken’s visit calm things down between the United States and China?

US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinkenarrives this weekend at China To smooth things over between the two powers, a goal that experts consider difficult, at least in the short term, given the current deterioration in relations.

After a year of rising tensions, the question is whether he is the head of American diplomacy You will succeed in calming spirits Orienting bilateral relations, or conversely the polarization between them Washington And Beijing I have reached a point of no return.

The visit was announced only hours later eyelash He spoke on the phone with his Chinese counterpart, Chen gang. It was the first conversation – public at least – at this high level in months in which he asked the American Keep communication channels openwhile Chen He demanded respect for his country.

What specifications will China give to visit?

Specifically, the difference between the tones of Diplomats makes experts love Bill BishopSpecialized Platform Editor sinhe concluded China is not particularly enthusiastic about Blinken’s arrival And he may decide to treat it as such Low key visit.

“The text of the call doesn’t exactly convey a welcome message,” said the expert.

China is not particularly enthusiastic about Blinken’s arrival

As an example, the gangs that spread among Chinese policy experts on account of the visit to ChinaAlso this week, from the founder of Microsoft, Bill Gates“What if the Chinese president, Xi JinpingReceive portals but not to eyelash? , ask many.

“It is not an easy visit. The deterioration of confidence is significant And it doesn’t look like he can recover in the short term. Not only are the differences increasing and the possibility of channeling them constructively very poorly, but Beijing believes that the initial consensus is being questioned today. lazy riosDirector of the China Policy Observatory.

Taiwan is the key to the dispute

Among these concordances, matter Taiwanencysted since last August when he was then president The CongressAnd Nancy PelosiHe will visit the island.

Beijing He took the flight as a slap, to which he responded harshly Penalty batteriescancel the dialogue with Washington On topics of utmost interest—including defense and climate change—and Military exercises in the Taiwan Strait Of an intensity not seen in years and which has since become familiar.

As common as clashes, who Pelosi’s collapseat the expense of the island, also angered Beijing’s new meeting held President of Taiwan in the United States a few months ago with Pelosi’s successor, Kevin McCarthy.

“This year will be very tense in bilateral relations like the elections in January 2024 Taiwan. This may jeopardize Xi’s participation in the APEC summit in November in the United States.” rivers.

Moreover, it is considered that “some gestures may lead one to believe so China I decided to prolong a “bystander” in the bilateral relationship for a long time, waiting for what would result in 2024, confident, perhaps deceptively, that with another administration, another relationship could be established ».

Spy balloons and bases

for a matter Taiwan We should also add trade problems, sanctions intersections, and American dalliance with potential Economic separation with China.

In a similar scenario development, in recent days and amid speculations about the possibility of resuming the flight in June, US media published the following: China Run spy base from CubaIt was immediately denied by Havana and Beijing and Washington said it was “inaccurate” information.

to Moritz Rudolphfrom the Paul Tsai China Center, “The rhetoric between the two countries reveals a huge deficit of mutual trust.”

“The main obstacles seem very difficult to overcome,” says the analyst, noting “the importance the two countries place on being the leading power in the world, the dynamics derived from two completely different political and value systems, and both local scenarios.”

But for this very reason and because of the “deterioration of relations China and the USA It is very dangerous, ”the expert emphasizes, “every small step in this approach is important at this moment.”