“From what we’ve seen with the nominations throughout this administration, what could really be a tradition has not been met is that the board has members, it’s made up of people who’ve worked at the central bank,” said Janeth Keyrouz. Zamora, Vice President of Economic Studies at Monex Casa de Bolsa.
That includes the appointment last year of Victoria Rodriguez, the former head of spending at the finance ministry, as governor of the bank, despite her limited monetary policy experience.
Although the chances are slim, Esquivel could surprise Banxico watchers with a re-election to a second eight-year term, which would likely see him continue to support looser monetary policy than other board members.
Here are some of the candidates that economists think could replace Esquivel:
Gabriel Yorio
As the second-in-command in the Ministry of Finance, led by Rogelio Ramírez de la O, Iorio was part of the team that kept the deficit in check amid big spending like a new airport and refinery. As an undersecretary, he attends central bank board meetings without the right to vote and is the government’s public voice on issues ranging from oil coverage to an agreement to curb inflation.
He previously worked at the Mexico City Ministry of Finance, at Banco Nacional de Comercio External SNC, and at the World Bank.
Yorio has relevant experience in macroeconomics, markets and policies. “It is likely that the markets will welcome his appointment,” said Alonso Cervera, chief economist for Latin America at Credit Suisse Group AG.
Lucia Buenrostro
Vice President of Regulatory Policy for the National Commission for Banks and Securities (CNBV), Buenrostro holds a PhD in Economics from the University of Warwick in the UK. He worked in the private sector at Commerzbank AG, and held senior positions at López Obrador’s Banco del Bienestar and the country’s health regulator.
His sister, Raquel, is a close ally of López Obrador and was recently appointed Minister of the Economy.
“I don’t remember at this point having close experience in a field related to Banco Mexico. I just don’t see it that way. Again, it wouldn’t be a limitation under the law,” said Joel Virgen Rujano, director of strategy for Latin America at TD Securities.
John Paul de Botton
Undersecretary of the Treasury for Expenditures, De Botton holds the same position that Rodríguez held prior to his election to Banxico’s highest office.
He previously held the position of Director of two Development Banks and worked in the Tax Administration Department. He was also part of López Obrador’s transition team. Some point out that he has less experience than Yurio and is less well known in the financial markets, but his work in the Ministry of Finance makes him a competitive player for the job.
Others believe that the president is unlikely to allow him to leave his current position. “However, it seems difficult for the government to let the secretaries go, because they work so well in the government team,” said Gabriel Casillas, head of economics for Latin America at Barclays plc, referring to de Botton and the undersecretary. Treasury, Gabriel Iorio.
Jorge Mendoza
Director of Banco Nacional de Obras y Servicios Públicos, Banobras, who trained at Harvard, Mendoza is one of the few high-level government officials to work with López Obrador having previously served in the administration of former President Enrique Peña Nieto. Before being sent to Banobras when López Obrador took over in 2018.
Mendoza served as director of corporate finance for a Mexican public utility company and held senior positions in public credit and international affairs in the Ministry of Finance. Mendoza worked in mergers and acquisitions at Barclays Capital in New York and in investment banking for Credit Suisse Group AG before entering the public sector.
He holds an MBA from Harvard University and a BA in Finance from the University of Texas at Austin.
Julio Santaella
The former head of Mexico’s Statistical Institute is no stranger to the central bank, having been part of the economic research team, and also worked on macroeconomic policy at the Ministry of Finance, as well as at the International Monetary Fund.
He received his PhD from the University of California, Los Angeles. Santalla and Edgar Amador, both technical advisers to the governor of Panxico, “have extensive experience in monetary and fiscal policy,” Gabriel Lozano, Mexico’s chief economist in Mexico, wrote in a note this month. JPMorgan Chase & Co.
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