2050: Mexico will be the eleventh world economy, not the fifth

Mexico was the 11th largest economy in the world in 1980, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). That year, the country’s nominal GDP (nominal GDP) was $228.606 million. Its GDP has been surpassed by the United States, Japan, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Italy, China, Canada, Argentina and Spain. The economies of Brazil, India, and South Korea were among the 133 economies, following Mexico.

Ten years later, in 1990, Mexico, with a nominal GDP of $290.402 million, slipped to 15th place among the 151 countries included in the International Monetary Fund. In those 10 years, the United States, Japan, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Italy, Canada, Spain and China remained in the top 11; The Argentine national team had fallen from ninth to twenty-third place.

That year, our economy outperformed that of Iran, Brazil, India, Australia and the Netherlands. South Korea ranked 16th, without Mexico.

Ten years later, in 2000, with a nominal GDP of $707,909 million, the Mexican economy ranked ninth out of 191 countries, lower than the United States, Japan, Germany, the United Kingdom, France, China, Italy, and Canada. Again, the economies of Brazil, Spain, India, the Netherlands, Australia, Iran and Argentina were lower than the Mexican economy. South Korea ranked 12th and Russia ranked 20th.

Ten years later, in 2010, with a nominal GDP of 1,057,801 million, the Mexican economy once again fell to 15th place among 194 countries. Pictured above are the United States, China, Japan, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Brazil, Italy, India, Russia, Canada, Spain, Australia, and South Korea.

10 years later, in 2020, with a nominal GDP of $1,087,117 million, our economy was still 15th, down from the 14th it overtook a decade ago.

Last year, also according to the International Monetary Fund, the nominal GDP was $1,294,829 million, ranking 16th after Iran at 14th, ahead of Spain at 15th.

By 2027, the International Monetary Fund expects Mexico to be the 17th largest economy given that Indonesia will overtake it that year.

It seems that the COVID-19 pandemic, along with some of the actions and decisions taken by the government of President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, have affected the speed of growth of the Mexican economy, which has lost its dynamism in recent years.

A few years ago, various analysts predicted that in 2050 the Mexican company would be among the five largest in the world, however, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), it is very likely that this will not happen because “it will be” that rampant corruption will be difficult to eradicate. (This is most evident at subnational levels and in law enforcement.) As a result, although average GDP growth will accelerate in 2021-50 compared to recent decades, it will be weak” compared to other countries.

For the EIU, Mexico in 2050 will be the 11th in the world, just as it was in 1980, not the 5th, due to corruption that neither AMLO nor any other federal, state, or municipal official appears to be able to control. The top five countries will be China, the United States, India, Germany and the United Kingdom.

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